Food sustains life and farming is the key activity that provides access to this critical resource. Therefore, the importance of farming for the very existence of human life cannot be overemphasized. As India is primarily agrarian, the socio-economic importance of the farming sector here is greater than it is in more industrialized countries. This is evident from the facts and figures available in the Economic Survey 20241: more than 45 per cent of India’s workforce is employed in agriculture. This is only slightly less than four times the workforce employed in manufacturing. With the world’s largest population to feed and an already burdensome import bill, it is in India’s interest to be self-sufficient in as many agricultural products as possible. So, have the scientific developments of the last few decades managed to mitigate risks to this critical activity or have new threats emerged? Let us consider some key aspects of Indian agriculture to understand this.
India has three major cropping seasons: Rabi, Kharif and Zaid. Rabi crops, sown between October and December, are harvested between April and June. They include wheat, gram and mustard and are grown in large parts of the country, primarily in northern and western India. Their success is dependent on rainfall in winter. Kharif crops, sown after the arrival of monsoon, are harvested between September and October. They include paddy, cotton, groundnut, soyabean and certain pulses, and are grown in several parts of the country. Agriculture during this season was heavily dependent on the Monsoon earlier but is now better supported by irrigation facilities3. The third cropping season, Zaid, is a short one between Rabi and Kharif; crops grown during this season include watermelon, muskmelon as well as vegetables.
Despite being the backbone of such a large section of the population, agriculture in India continues to be exposed to risks and uncertainties since times immemorial. For instance, the success of the Rabi crop is still heavily dependent on precipitation. Similarly, Zaid crops need warm and dry weather during most of their growth period. There are also other factors that influence crop success (or failure). They include the season’s intensity, floods, pests and diseases. In addition to these natural phenomena, most farmers in India are economically fragile. The majority is comprised of marginal farmers – those who own less than one hectare of land. They lack the resources to invest in new tools, technologies and practices that could help them mitigate risks. Even a single bad season pushes them deep into debt.
A consideration of all these and numerous other factors enables us to appreciate how climate change threatens India’s farming sector. The first thing to consider in this context is that the success of a crop cycle is based on specific conditions and expectations that together form a rather delicate combination.
Climate change is just the kind of monster that constantly tries to, and many-a-time manages to, prevent the formation of this combination. Some of the critical crop success factors threatened by climate change are as follows:
The right quantity of water: Despite efforts to increase irrigation facilities over the last few decades, the ground reality is that rainfall is still critical for a large percentage of India’s farmland. Even as more frequent weak monsoons every now and then deprive crops of life-giving water, rainfall patterns have also shown much variation in the recent past. This phenomenon often leads to very intense rainfall over fewer days and that in turn causes flooding and soil erosion.
Appropriate temperature range: Like many other countries across the world, India has been witnessing warmer years in the recent past. The summer of 2024 witnessed the most intense heat wave in decades. Extreme heat as well as milder and shorter winters reduce crop survival and yield.
Protection from pests and diseases: The increase in the average temperature makes crops more vulnerable to pests and diseases.
Some examples of the damage already caused by climate change to the farming sector in India are as follows:
Crop-yield reduction: Impact on crop yield varies from one region to another. According to a policy paper4 published by ICAR-National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research (NIAP), New Delhi, a study of crop yield between 1966 and 2011 revealed a moderate reduction, ranging between 1.17% and 2.62% in the yield of crops such as rice and maize in the Himalayan region and Lower Gangetic Plains. A more significant reduction - between 3.66% and 9.91% - was witnessed in sugarcane yields. One factor to consider here is that in many instances, even the provision of adequate irrigation facilities to compensate for lower rainfall does not manage to protect crop yield as factors such as higher average temperature also play a role.
Crop damage: The impact of significant or complete crop damage is more drastic than gradual yield reduction. Some of the damage caused by the latter can still be partially offset by providing better storage facilities for the harvested crops. For instance, according to a report published in 2024 based on a survey conducted by the Forum of Enterprises for Equitable Development (FEED) in collaboration with the Development Intelligence Unit (DIU)5, “80 percent of marginal farmers in India have suffered crop losses due to adverse climatic events over the past five years.” Drought, excessive or non-seasonal rains and the late arrival or early withdrawal of monsoons were identified by the report as the leading causes of crop damage.
Financial impact on farmers: As mentioned earlier, most Indian farmers already lack financial strength. Climate change has just added to their woes by increasing the frequency and magnitude of losses as well as by creating the need for more pro-active risk mitigation. Most farmers do not have the financial resources for these. For instance, according to the same survey report, “… two-thirds of the marginal farmers affected by extreme weather events have adopted climate-resilient agricultural practices, including changes in sowing time and methods, crop duration, and water and disease management strategies. However, 76 per cent of those who adopted these practices faced challenges such as lack of credit facilities, physical resources, limited knowledge, small land holdings, and high up-front costs.”
The question that now arises is whether India’s farming sector will remain at the mercy of climate change or if concrete action can be taken to manage the risks. On the bright side, there are many who have picked up the gauntlet thrown by climate change and much action is already underway. In an article6 published in March 2023, the Word Economic Forum highlighted actions such as the revival of traditional crops to climate-proofing infrastructure, that different Indian communities have undertaken to adapt to climate change rather than be its helpless victims. Another step that should go hand-in hand with these efforts is creation of a sustainable pool of funds for crop insurance. That can help provide farmers income to survive in the face of extreme climate events as well as enable them to continue to be in the game and continue their journey of adaptation.
Only time will tell whether our efforts to control and undo the damage of climate change bear fruit to the desired extent or if we have already crossed the point of no return. Regardless of the likely outcome, using our awareness and ingenuity seems to be the only choice at the moment. This is not the first time in history that the human race has faced a challenge to its survival and prosperity. And, as always, we must use the power of knowledge, innovation and perseverance to overcome it.
Citations
Posted 13/01/2025
